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Justice Hill

Justice Hill Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 13

Baltimore Ravens vs Cincinnati Bengals

 
 
 
Justice Hill Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 10.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 10.5 @ -120.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The model projects the Baltimore Ravens to run the 10th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 65.3 plays, given their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
  • Justice Hill has been an integral part of his team's passing attack, earning a Target Share of 11.3% this year, which ranks him in the 87th percentile when it comes to running backs.
  • The Bengals defense has conceded the 2nd-most adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (45.0) to running backs this year.
  • This year, the feeble Bengals defense has conceded the 4th-most adjusted yards-per-target in the league to opposing running backs: a colossal 7.70 yards.
  • When it comes to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, Cincinnati's group of LBs has been easily exploitable this year, grading out as the 2nd-worst in the NFL.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Ravens are a giant 7-point favorite in this game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
  • The predictive model expects the Ravens as the least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 50.2% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
  • The 2nd-fewest plays in football have been called by the Baltimore Ravens this year (a measly 52.0 per game on average).
  • When it comes to protecting the passer (and the ramifications it has on all air attack metrics), the O-line of the Baltimore Ravens grades out as the 6th-worst in football this year.
  • Justice Hill has accrued quite a few less adjusted receiving yards per game (16.0) this year than he did last year (27.0).

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