Julio Jones Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Julio Jones

NFL · Player Props

Julio Jones

WR · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Receptions

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 13, 2022 5:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Julio Jones Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+145/-175).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the 2nd-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 67.2% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the most plays run on the slate this week at 137.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have run the 3rd-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a colossal 63.1 plays per game.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive line grades out as the 4th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all passing offense stats across the board.

Favors Under

Opposing QBs have averaged 34.1 pass attempts per game against the Seattle Seahawks defense this year: 10th-least in football.
Julio Jones has been used less as a potential target this year (45.0% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (68.6%).
Julio Jones's possession skills have diminished this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 65.9% to 52.9%.
The Seattle Seahawks pass defense has yielded the 7th-lowest Completion% in football (63.1%) to wide receivers this year (63.1%).
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line has allowed their QB a measly 2.30 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all pass game statistics across the board.

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