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Julio Jones

Julio Jones Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 15

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Cincinnati Bengals

Julio Jones Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+330/-619).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Buccaneers are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-most plays run among all games this week at 134.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have run the most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a whopping 63.9 plays per game.

Julio Jones has posted quite a few more air yards this season (76.0 per game) than he did last season (58.0 per game).

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line ranks as the 3rd-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all pass game metrics across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects Julio Jones to be a much smaller piece of his offense's pass game near the goal line this week (14.9% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (20.4% in games he has played).

Julio Jones's 33.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly worse this year than it was last year at 43.1.

Julio Jones's ball-catching skills have diminished this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 68.4% to 58.1%.

The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has yielded the 9th-lowest Completion% in the league (64.3%) to wideouts this year (64.3%).

The Cincinnati Bengals defense has allowed the 2nd-least passing touchdowns in the NFL to WRs: 0.46 per game this year.

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