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Julian Hill

Julian Hill Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 3

Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins

Julian Hill Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+1150/-3300).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -1650 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -3300.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Dolphins are a massive 11.5-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating an extreme passing game script.

The leading projections forecast the Dolphins to be the most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 66.3% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

The model projects the Dolphins to be the 2nd-most pass-oriented offense in the league near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 61.2% red zone pass rate.

Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 9th-highest rate in the league against the Buffalo Bills defense since the start of last season (72.6% Adjusted Completion%).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The projections expect the Dolphins to run the 2nd-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 60.9 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.

In regards to protecting the passer (and the significance it has on all passing attack stats), the O-line of the Miami Dolphins ranks as the 7th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season.

Julian Hill profiles as one of the most unreliable receivers in the NFL among tight ends, completing just 64.9% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) last year, grading out in the 25th percentile.

Julian Hill ranks in the 1st percentile among TEs when it comes to catching touchdowns last year, averaging a lowly 0.00 per game.

As it relates to the linebackers' role in stopping the run, Buffalo's collection of LBs has been easily exploitable since the start of last season, profiling as the worst in the league. in the league.

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