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Julian Hill

Julian Hill Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 13

Miami Dolphins vs New Orleans Saints

 
 
 
Julian Hill Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+1500/-2200).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -920 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -2200.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Julian Hill's ball-catching skills have been refined this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate jumping from 64.9% to 78.4%.
  • Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 7th-highest level in the league versus the Saints defense this year (73.7% Adjusted Completion%).
  • The New Orleans Saints defense has conceded the 8th-most touchdowns through the air in the NFL to TEs: 0.45 per game this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Dolphins are a 5.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating a running game script.
  • Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Dolphins to pass on 54.6% of their opportunities: the 10th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
  • Right now, the most sluggish paced offense in football (in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Miami Dolphins.
  • The forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
  • Opposing quarterbacks teams have been afraid to pass too much against the Saints, totaling the fewest attempts in football (a measly 28.6 per game) this year.

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