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Julian Hill

Julian Hill Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 11

Miami Dolphins vs Washington Commanders

 
 
 
Julian Hill Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+780/-1000).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -730 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -1000.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Right now, the 10th-most pass-focused offense in the league near the goal line (58.4% in a neutral context) according to our trusted projection set is the Dolphins.
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
  • Julian Hill's receiving reliability have gotten a boost this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate increasing from 64.9% to 77.0%.
  • Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 6th-highest clip in football versus the Washington Commanders defense this year (74.7% Adjusted Completion%).
  • The Washington Commanders defense has conceded the 7th-most touchdowns through the air in the league to tight ends: 0.60 per game this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Dolphins are projected by the model to run just 62.4 offensive plays in this game: the 2nd-lowest number among all teams this week.
  • The 4th-fewest plays in the NFL have been run by the Miami Dolphins this year (only 51.7 per game on average).
  • The Miami Dolphins offensive line ranks as the 2nd-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.
  • The receiving touchdown line reads "0" on the back of Julian Hill's trading card this year.

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