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Julian Hill

Julian Hill Receptions
Player Prop Week 7

Cleveland Browns vs Miami Dolphins

 
 
 
Julian Hill Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-108/-118).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +118 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -118.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Right now, the 10th-most pass-focused offense in the NFL (62.2% in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Dolphins.
  • Julian Hill's 2.2 adjusted catches per game this year reflects a meaningful improvement in his pass-catching ability over last year's 1.1 mark.
  • Julian Hill's sure-handedness have gotten a boost this year, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 64.9% to 81.7%.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Dolphins are projected by the model to call only 62.2 total plays in this game: the 4th-lowest number among all teams this week.
  • The Dolphins have called the fewest plays in the league this year, totaling just 49.8 plays per game.
  • The weather report calls for 19-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
  • Opposing offenses teams have been disinclined to test the pass defense of the Cleveland Browns, averaging the 6th-fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 29.5 per game) this year.
  • When it comes to protecting the quarterback (and the effect it has on all pass game statistics), the O-line of the Miami Dolphins ranks as the 2nd-worst in football this year.

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