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Julian Hill

Julian Hill Receptions
Player Prop Week 1

Indianapolis Colts vs Miami Dolphins

Julian Hill Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-170/+130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +150 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +130.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Miami Dolphins to pass on 62.5% of their opportunities: the 3rd-highest frequency on the slate this week.

The Dolphins have called the 5th-most plays in the NFL last year, totaling a whopping 59.7 plays per game.

Last year, the porous Indianapolis Colts pass defense has been torched for a colossal 83.9% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing tight ends: the 2nd-worst rate in football.

As it relates to linebackers in covering receivers, Indianapolis's unit has been lousy last year, profiling as the 4th-worst in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Miami Dolphins are anticipated by the model to run just 61.6 total plays in this contest: the lowest number among all teams this week.

In regards to pass protection (and the significance it has on all passing offense statistics), the O-line of the Dolphins ranks as the 10th-worst in football last year.

With a meager 1.1 adjusted receptions per game (22nd percentile) last year, Julian Hill rates as one of the bottom pass-catching tight ends in the NFL.

With a feeble 64.9% Adjusted Completion% (25th percentile) last year, Julian Hill stands as one of the least sure-handed receivers in the league among tight ends.

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