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Julian Hill

Julian Hill Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 3

Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins

Julian Hill Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-118/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Dolphins are a massive 11.5-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating an extreme passing game script.

The leading projections forecast the Dolphins to be the most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 66.3% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

As it relates to linebackers in covering receivers, Buffalo's LB corps has been dreadful since the start of last season, ranking as the 9th-worst in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The projections expect the Dolphins to run the 2nd-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 60.9 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.

In regards to protecting the passer (and the significance it has on all passing attack stats), the O-line of the Miami Dolphins ranks as the 7th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season.

With a bad 10.0 adjusted yards per game through the air (21st percentile) last year, Julian Hill places among the weakest TE receiving threats in the league.

Julian Hill profiles as one of the most unreliable receivers in the NFL among tight ends, completing just 64.9% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) last year, grading out in the 25th percentile.

The Buffalo Bills defense has conceded the 7th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (just 41.0) to TEs since the start of last season.

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