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Julian Hill Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-111/-111).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -111 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -111.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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This week's spread suggests a throwing game script for the Dolphins, who are -3.5-point underdogs.Julian Hill's sure-handedness have gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate rising from 64.9% to 75.8%.The Cincinnati Bengals defense has given up the most adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (92.0) to tight ends this year.This year, the deficient Bengals defense has been torched for the most adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to opposing tight ends: a colossal 9.82 yards.As it relates to linebackers in pass coverage, Cincinnati's unit has been lousy this year, profiling as the 2nd-worst in football.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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The leading projections forecast the Miami Dolphins as the 7th-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 54.1% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.The leading projections forecast this game to see the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 122.6 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.The Miami Dolphins have called the 3rd-fewest plays in the league this year, averaging a mere 51.9 plays per game.In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the importance it has on all passing game statistics), the O-line of the Miami Dolphins grades out as the worst in football this year.Julian Hill comes in as one of the worst TEs in football at generating extra yardage, averaging a lowly 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while ranking in the 1st percentile.
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