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Julian Hill Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 11

Miami Dolphins vs Washington Commanders

Julian Hill Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 6.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.

Julian Hill's receiving reliability have gotten a boost this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate increasing from 64.9% to 77.0%.

The Commanders pass defense has conceded the 6th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (82.6%) to TEs this year (82.6%).

The Commanders pass defense has displayed bad efficiency versus TEs this year, surrendering 9.61 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 2nd-most in football.

The Washington Commanders linebackers project as the 3rd-worst group of LBs in the NFL this year in defending pass-catchers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Dolphins have been the 8th-least pass-oriented offense in the league (adjusted for context) this year with a 58.5% pass rate.

Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Dolphins are projected by the model to run just 62.4 offensive plays in this game: the 2nd-lowest number among all teams this week.

The 4th-fewest plays in the NFL have been run by the Miami Dolphins this year (only 51.7 per game on average).

The Miami Dolphins offensive line ranks as the 2nd-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.

Julian Hill profiles as one of the worst tight ends in the league at picking up extra yardage, averaging a lowly 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while checking in at the 2nd percentile.

More Julian Hill Player Props

Julian Hill Receiving YardsPlayer Prop Week 11

Miami Dolphins vs Washington Commanders

Julian Hill Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 11