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Julian Hill Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 10

Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills

Julian Hill Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 13.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 9.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Dolphins are a giant 9.5-point underdog in this week's game, indicating an extreme passing game script.

Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Dolphins to pass on 62.1% of their opportunities: the 2nd-highest frequency among all teams this week.

Julian Hill's receiving reliability have gotten a boost this year, with his Adjusted Catch% rising from 64.9% to 77.0%.

When it comes to linebackers in pass coverage, Buffalo's group of LBs has been awful this year, projecting as the 5th-worst in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The predictive model expects the Dolphins to call the fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 60.3 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.

The 5th-smallest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Dolphins this year (only 52.4 per game on average).

Opposing QBs teams have been reluctant to pass too much against the Bills, totaling the 7th-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 29.9 per game) this year.

When talking about pocket protection (and the influence it has on all pass attack metrics), the O-line of the Dolphins grades out as the 2nd-worst in football this year.

Julian Hill profiles as one of the least effective pass-catchers in the league among tight ends, averaging a mere 6.06 adjusted yards-per-target this year while ranking in the 16th percentile.

More Julian Hill Player Props

Julian Hill Receiving YardsPlayer Prop Week 10

Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills

Julian Hill Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 10