JuJu Smith-Schuster Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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JuJu Smith-Schuster

NFL · Player Props

JuJu Smith-Schuster

WR · Kansas City Chiefs

Touchdowns

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 5, 2025

Updated Oct 7, 2025 12:17 AM UTC

Analysis

JuJu Smith-Schuster Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+370/-440).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +395 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +370.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At the moment, the most pass-focused team in football (69.9% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Kansas City Chiefs.
The projections expect this game to see the 4th-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 129.1 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 40.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year: 6th-most in the league.
After averaging 9.0 air yards per game last season, JuJu Smith-Schuster has gotten better this season, currently averaging 22.0 per game.
JuJu Smith-Schuster's 25.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive volume) has been notably higher this season than it was last season at 11.1.

Favors Under

With a 3.5-point advantage, the Chiefs are favored this week, indicating more of a focus on rushing than their standard approach.
Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being forecasted in this game) typically prompt worse passing efficiency, lower pass volume, and higher rush volume.
While JuJu Smith-Schuster has garnered 20.0% of his team's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the projections expect him to be a less important option in Kansas City's passing attack near the goal line in this contest at 14.6%.
Opposing teams have completed passes at the 3rd-lowest level in football vs. the Jaguars defense this year (64.9% Adjusted Completion%).
The Jaguars linebackers profile as the 2nd-best LB corps in football this year in defending pass-catchers.

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