JuJu Smith-Schuster Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 18

NFL · Player Props

JuJu Smith-Schuster

WR · Kansas City Chiefs

Receptions

Las Vegas Raiders vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 18, 2022

Updated Jan 8, 2023 12:31 AM UTC

Analysis

JuJu Smith-Schuster Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-170/+140).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -160 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -170.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 2nd-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 67.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects JuJu Smith-Schuster to notch 7.4 targets in this contest, on average, ranking in the 84th percentile among wide receivers.
The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line grades out as the 9th-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all pass game statistics across the board.
JuJu Smith-Schuster's play as a receiver has gotten better this season, compiling 5.1 yards per game vs a measly 3.3 last season.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a massive 8.5-point favorite this week, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
JuJu Smith-Schuster has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this season (81.4% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (93.0%).
The Kansas City Chiefs have faced a stacked the box on a measly 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a mere 1.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the NFL). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone for it on 4th down just 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (3rd-least in the NFL), which usually means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.