JuJu Smith-Schuster Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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NFL · Player Props

JuJu Smith-Schuster

WR · New England Patriots

Receiving Yards

New England Patriots vs New Orleans Saints · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 9, 2023 12:01 AM EST

Analysis

JuJu Smith-Schuster Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 23.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 25.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 23.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is predicted by the projections to have 134.8 total plays called: the highest number out of all the games this week.
The New England Patriots have called the 5th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a staggering 64.8 plays per game.
Opposing QBs have averaged 38.0 pass attempts per game against the Saints defense this year: 8th-most in the NFL.

Favors Under

The model projects the New England Patriots as the 7th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 55.2% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being forecasted in this game) typically mean worse passing effectiveness, reduced air volume, and higher ground volume.
Juju Smith-Schuster has gone out for fewer passes this season (49.7% Route Participation Rate in games he has played) than he did last season (81.2%).
After accumulating 44.0 air yards per game last year, Juju Smith-Schuster has posted significant losses this year, now averaging 35.0 per game.
The New England Patriots offensive line profiles as the 3rd-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all air attack metrics across the board.