JuJu Smith-Schuster Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

NFL · Player Props

JuJu Smith-Schuster

WR · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 13, 2022 8:46 PM UTC

Analysis

JuJu Smith-Schuster Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 62.5 (+100/-122).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 62.5 @ -102 before it was bet up to 62.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 4th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 65.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to call the 2nd-most total plays on the slate this week with 69.3 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 7th-most plays in football this year, averaging a monstrous 61.9 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects JuJu Smith-Schuster to garner 8.2 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 84th percentile among WRs.
JuJu Smith-Schuster has been a more integral piece of his team's passing game this year (18.7% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (13.3%).

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a huge 9.5-point favorite in this game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
The Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense has conceded the 7th-lowest Completion% in football (63.1%) to wideouts this year (63.1%).
The Jacksonville Jaguars defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a measly 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 10th-quickest in football since the start of last season.
The Kansas City Chiefs have been faced with a stacked the box on a measly 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a lowly 1.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in football). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.