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Josiah Deguara Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+2000/-11000).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -7750 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -11000.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The Cardinals are an enormous 7-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Cardinals to pass on 62.4% of their plays: the 3rd-greatest frequency among all teams this week.At the present time, the 2nd-most pass-centric team in the league near the goal line (64.6% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Arizona Cardinals.The projections expect the Arizona Cardinals offense to be the 3rd-fastest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 26.67 seconds per snap.This year, the anemic Cincinnati Bengals defense has been torched for a monstrous 1.00 touchdowns through the air per game to opposing tight ends: the worst rate in football.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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The forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.Josiah Deguara has been been lightly used his team's passing offense near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of just 0.0% this year, which ranks him in the 1st percentile among TEs.In regards to air yards, Josiah Deguara ranks in the paltry 10th percentile among tight ends this year, accruing just 1.0 per game.Josiah Deguara slots into just the 8th percentile for tight end WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) with a subpar 1.1 figure this year.In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the influence it has on all passing attack statistics), the O-line of the Arizona Cardinals profiles as the 4th-worst in football this year.
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