Joshua Kelley Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Joshua Kelley

NFL · Player Props

Joshua Kelley

RB · Los Angeles Chargers

Rushing Yards

Los Angeles Chargers vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 16, 2023 11:46 PM EST

Analysis

Joshua Kelley Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 27.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 29.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 27.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Chargers offensive scheme to tilt 2.2% more towards running than it did last year (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Kellen Moore now calling the plays.
The predictive model expects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run among all games this week at 133.4 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Chargers have run the 8th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a whopping 61.2 plays per game.
Joshua Kelley's 53.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this year conveys a a material progression in his rushing prowess over last year's 26.0 rate.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Los Angeles Chargers to be the least run-oriented team on the slate this week with a 36.6% run rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still weather conditions (0-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while ground volume may decline.
While Joshua Kelley has received 52.8% of his offense's carries in games he has played this year, the leading projections forecast him to be a much smaller piece of Los Angeles's ground game in this game at 25.1%.
When talking about blocking for rushers (and the importance it has on all ground game stats), the O-line of the Los Angeles Chargers profiles as the worst in the league last year.
Joshua Kelley's ground effectiveness has diminished this year, averaging a mere 3.70 adjusted yards-per-carry compared to a 4.54 figure last year.

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