Joshua Kelley Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

NFL · Player Props

Joshua Kelley

RB · Los Angeles Chargers

Rushing Yards

Los Angeles Chargers vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 8:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Joshua Kelley Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 52.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 51.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 52.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Los Angeles Chargers boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to lean 1.7% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The Chargers are a 6.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating a rushing game script.
The predictive model expects the Los Angeles Chargers offense as the 4th-fastest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 26.41 seconds per play.
The leading projections forecast Joshua Kelley to earn 15.8 carries in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 89th percentile among running backs.
Our trusted projections expect Joshua Kelley to be much less involved in his offense's ground game this week (42.1% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (53.3% in games he has played).

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Los Angeles Chargers as the 9th-least run-heavy team among all teams this week with a 38.2% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather report calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, and reduced rush volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The Los Angeles Chargers O-line profiles as the 7th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in run blocking.
Joshua Kelley's rushing effectiveness has diminished this season, accumulating a measly 3.74 yards-per-carry compared to a 4.54 figure last season.
Joshua Kelley has been among the bottom running backs in the league at grinding out extra rushing yardage, averaging a mere 2.25 yards-after-contact this year while grading out in the 24th percentile.