Joshua Kelley Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Joshua Kelley

NFL · Player Props

Joshua Kelley

RB · Los Angeles Chargers

Rushing Yards

Minnesota Vikings vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 24, 2023 11:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Joshua Kelley Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 61.5 (-120/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Los Angeles Chargers will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.8% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the most plays run out of all the games this week at 135.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Chargers have called the 2nd-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a monstrous 63.2 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Joshua Kelley to total 15.0 carries in this contest, on average, ranking in the 81st percentile among running backs.
Joshua Kelley's running efficiency (4.76 yards per carry) has been some of the best in the league this year (75th percentile among running backs).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 5th-least run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 37.3% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The Los Angeles Chargers O-line profiles as the 7th-worst in the league since the start of last season at opening holes for runners.
The Minnesota Vikings defensive tackles project as the best group of DTs in football since the start of last season when it comes to stopping the run.

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