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Joshua Kelley

Joshua Kelley Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 16

Los Angeles Chargers vs Buffalo Bills

 
 
 
Joshua Kelley Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 13.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 11.5 @ -110.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The leading projections forecast this game to have the 4th-highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.5 plays, given the traits of each team and game dynamics.
  • The Bills defense has had the 4th-worst efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, surrendering 4.80 adjusted yards-per-carry.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Los Angeles Chargers may rely on the pass game less in this week's contest (and call more carries) because they be starting backup quarterback Easton Stick.
  • This week's line indicates an extreme throwing game script for the Chargers, who are huge -12.5-point underdogs.
  • The model projects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 3rd-least run-centric team on the slate this week with a 37.6% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • The passing offenses of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm weather conditions (1-mph wind) being projected in this game, while run volume may slide.
  • While Joshua Kelley has earned 31.4% of his team's carries in games he has played this year, the leading projections forecast him to be a much smaller part of Los Angeles's ground game this week at 11.7%.

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