Joshua Kelley Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Joshua Kelley

NFL · Player Props

Joshua Kelley

RB · Los Angeles Chargers

Rushing Yards

Los Angeles Chargers vs Detroit Lions · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 13, 2023 4:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Joshua Kelley Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 20.5 @ -118 before it was bet down to 18.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Los Angeles Chargers offense to tilt 2.1% more towards the ground game than it did last season (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Kellen Moore now calling the plays.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is forecasted by the predictive model to have 130.4 offensive plays run: the 2nd-highest number out of all the games this week.
Joshua Kelley has run for quite a few more adjusted yards per game (40.0) this season than he did last season (26.0).

Favors Under

The projections expect the Chargers to be the 3rd-least run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 36.8% run rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
The forecast calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The model projects Joshua Kelley to be a much smaller part of his offense's rushing attack this week (23.7% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (38.5% in games he has played).
The Chargers offensive line grades out as the 7th-worst in football last year at blocking for rushers.
This year, the formidable Detroit Lions run defense has given up a measly 74.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to the opposing side: the 2nd-fewest in football.

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