Joshua Kelley Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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NFL · Player Props

Joshua Kelley

RB · Los Angeles Chargers

Receiving Yards

Los Angeles Chargers vs Chicago Bears · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 30, 2023 12:17 AM UTC

Analysis

Joshua Kelley Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 6.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At the moment, the 6th-most pass-oriented team in football (64.6% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Los Angeles Chargers.
Right now, the 2nd-quickest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Chargers.
Calm weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being forecasted in this game) generally prompt better passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume.
The Chicago Bears defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, allowing opposing teams to attempt the 8th-most passes in football (38.6 per game) this year.
Joshua Kelley's 36.4% Route Participation% this year reflects a significant progression in his passing offense usage over last year's 23.1% mark.

Favors Under

The Chargers feature a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to lean 2.7% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
The Chargers are an enormous 8.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
Joshua Kelley's 1.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this year signifies a noteable reduction in his pass-catching proficiency over last year's 8.0 mark.
With a lackluster 59.0% Adjusted Completion Rate (9th percentile) since the start of last season, Joshua Kelley rates as one of the least sure-handed receivers in football among running backs.
With a bad 3.9 adjusted yards per target (23rd percentile) since the start of last season, Joshua Kelley has been among the bottom RB receiving threats in football.