Joshua Kelley Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

NFL · Player Props

Joshua Kelley

RB · Los Angeles Chargers

Receiving Yards

Los Angeles Chargers vs Detroit Lions · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 13, 2023 3:57 AM UTC

Analysis

Joshua Kelley Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Los Angeles Chargers as the 3rd-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 63.2% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is forecasted by the predictive model to have 130.4 offensive plays run: the 2nd-highest number out of all the games this week.
The forecast calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Joshua Kelley's 33.5% Route Participation Rate this year indicates a substantial improvement in his pass game volume over last year's 23.1% figure.
In regards to air yards, Joshua Kelley grades out in the towering 87th percentile among running backs this year, accumulating an impressive 2.0 per game. (considering most of their targets come behind the line of scrimmage, that is much more remarkable than it sounds since most RBs wind up with negative air yards).

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Los Angeles Chargers offense to tilt 2.1% more towards the ground game than it did last season (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Kellen Moore now calling the plays.
Joshua Kelley's 1.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this year marks a meaningful diminishment in his pass-catching talent over last year's 8.0 rate.
Joshua Kelley is positioned as one of the worst possession receivers in the NFL when it comes to running backs, hauling in a measly 59.2% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, grading out in the 11th percentile.
Joshua Kelley's pass-game efficiency has declined this year, totaling a mere 2.14 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a 4.36 mark last year.
This year, the tough Lions defense has given up a measly 69.0% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing RBs: the 2nd-smallest rate in football.