Joshua Kelley Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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NFL · Player Props

Joshua Kelley

RB · Los Angeles Chargers

Receiving Yards

Los Angeles Chargers vs Denver Broncos · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 17, 2022 11:16 PM UTC

Analysis

Joshua Kelley Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-103/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 6.5 @ -116 before it was bet down to 6.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 132.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Chargers have run the 8th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a monstrous 61.2 plays per game.
Joshua Kelley has put up significantly more receiving yards per game (12.0) this season than he did last season (4.0).
The Denver Broncos pass defense has struggled when opposing RBs have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 11.17 yards-after-the-catch this year: the most in the NFL.
The Denver Broncos defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.53 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the worst in the NFL since the start of last season.

Favors Under

The Chargers are a 4-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers as the 2nd-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 61.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Joshua Kelley has been among the most unreliable receivers in football among running backs, hauling in just 75.8% of balls thrown his way this year, grading out in the 24th percentile.
The Denver Broncos safeties project as the 2nd-best collection of safeties in the league this year in pass coverage.
The Denver Broncos have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 9.1% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the NFL. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.