Joshua Kelley Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Joshua Kelley

NFL · Player Props

Joshua Kelley

RB · Los Angeles Chargers

Carries

Los Angeles Chargers vs Chicago Bears · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 30, 2023 12:17 AM EST

Analysis

Joshua Kelley Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 7.5 @ +105 before it was bet up to 7.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chargers feature a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to lean 2.7% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
The Chargers are an enormous 8.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
Right now, the 2nd-quickest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Chargers.
The Chicago defensive ends rank as the 3rd-worst group of DEs in football this year when it comes to run defense.

Favors Under

At the present time, the 6th-least run-heavy offense in the NFL (35.4% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Chargers.
Calm weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being forecasted in this game) generally prompt better passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume.
While Joshua Kelley has garnered 41.7% of his offense's rushing play calls in games he has played this year, the model projects him to be much less involved in Los Angeles's ground game this week at 25.6%.
The Chargers offensive line ranks as the 7th-worst in the NFL last year at blocking for the run game.

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