Joshua Dobbs Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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NFL · Player Props

Joshua Dobbs

QB · Arizona Cardinals

Rushing Yards

Arizona Cardinals vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 29, 2023 10:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Joshua Dobbs Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 29.5 (-124/-106).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 19.5 @ +100 before it was bet up to 29.5 @ -124.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Cardinals have a new play-caller this year in head coach Jonathan Gannon, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to skew 6.0% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The predictive model expects the Arizona Cardinals offense to be the 10th-quickest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 27.06 seconds per play.
Our trusted projections expect Joshua Dobbs to earn 5.5 carries in this week's contest, on average: the 5th-most out of all QBs.
After accounting for 13.8% of his team's run game usage last season, Joshua Dobbs has had a larger role in the ground game this season, now sitting at 20.6%.
With an impressive tally of 30.0 adjusted rushing yards per game (83rd percentile), Joshua Dobbs ranks among the top running quarterbacks in football this year.

Favors Under

The Arizona Cardinals may throw the ball less in this week's contest (and call more rushes) as a result of being be forced to start backup quarterback Joshua Dobbs.
The Cardinals are a big 9.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Arizona Cardinals to run on 40.2% of their downs: the 10th-lowest clip among all teams this week.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
In regards to blocking for ball-carriers (and the influence it has on all ground game metrics), the O-line of the Arizona Cardinals ranks as the 6th-worst in the league last year.