Joshua Dobbs Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Joshua Dobbs

NFL · Player Props

Joshua Dobbs

QB · Arizona Cardinals

Carries

Arizona Cardinals vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 25, 2023 12:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Joshua Dobbs Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+115/-145).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +120 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Arizona Cardinals boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Jonathan Gannon, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 5.1% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The Arizona Cardinals have run the 5th-most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a whopping 61.6 plays per game.

Favors Under

The Arizona Cardinals will be starting backup quarterback Joshua Dobbs in this week's game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
The Cardinals are a massive 11.5-point underdog this week, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Arizona Cardinals to be the 6th-least run-oriented team on the slate this week with a 38.7% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Joshua Dobbs to accrue 3.0 carries in this game, on average: the 11th-least of all quarterbacks.

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