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Josh Reynolds

Josh Reynolds Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 5

New York Jets vs Dallas Cowboys

Josh Reynolds Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-120/-110).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Calm weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being called for in this game) generally lead to increased passing efficiency, higher TD potential, higher air volume, and reduced run volume.

The Dallas Cowboys defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, allowing opposing QBs to attempt the 7th-most passes in the league (39.5 per game) this year.

This year, the deficient Dallas Cowboys defense has yielded a whopping 205.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing wideouts: the worst in football.

The Dallas Cowboys pass defense has conceded the highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (77.2%) vs. wide receivers this year (77.2%).

The Cowboys linebackers grade out as the 4th-worst group of LBs in football this year in covering receivers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The model projects the Jets to be the least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 48.7% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is projected by the predictive model to have just 125.8 plays on offense run: the 3rd-lowest number on the slate this week.

The 6th-smallest volume of plays in football have been run by the New York Jets this year (a mere 53.2 per game on average).

The Jets O-line grades out as the 8th-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.

With a weak 51.6% Adjusted Completion% (22nd percentile) since the start of last season, Josh Reynolds places as one of the least sure-handed receivers in the NFL when it comes to WRs.

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