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Josh Reynolds

Josh Reynolds Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 2

New York Jets vs Buffalo Bills

Josh Reynolds Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 26.5 (+112/-140).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 26.5 @ -111 before it was bet down to 26.5 @ -140.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At a -6.5-point disadvantage, the Jets are underdogs in this game, indicating more of an emphasis on throwing than their usual approach.

The model projects Josh Reynolds to be a more important option in his offense's passing attack this week (16.0% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (9.1% in games he has played).

As it relates to pass-blocking (and the strong impact it has on all air attack metrics), the offensive line of the New York Jets profiles as the 6th-best in the NFL since the start of last season.

The Bills pass defense has surrendered the highest Adjusted Completion% in football (70.7%) to wide receivers since the start of last season (70.7%).

The Bills pass defense has been vulnerable when opposing wide receivers have gotten into space, yielding an average of 0.00 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the most in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The model projects the Jets offensive blueprint to lean 9.7% more towards the ground game than it did last year (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Tanner Engstrand now calling the plays.

Our trusted projections expect the Jets as the 4th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 52.8% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 3rd-fewest plays run among all games this week at 125.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Jets have run the 7th-fewest plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a mere 55.8 plays per game.

With a subpar 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (0th percentile) since the start of last season, Josh Reynolds ranks among the leading pass-catching wide receivers in the NFL in space.

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