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Josh Reynolds

Josh Reynolds Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 1

New York Jets vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Josh Reynolds Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 23.5 (-118/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 18.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 23.5 @ -118.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

This game's line implies a passing game script for the Jets, who are -3-point underdogs.

In regards to pass-blocking (and the positive impact it has on all passing attack stats), the offensive line of the Jets profiles as the 8th-best in football last year.

Last year, the poor Pittsburgh Steelers defense has surrendered the 5th-most adjusted yards-per-target in the league to opposing wideouts: a monstrous 8.72 yards.

Last year, the weak Steelers defense has conceded the 7th-most yards-after-the-catch in the NFL to opposing WRs: a whopping 4.84 YAC.

When it comes to cornerbacks in defending pass-catchers, Pittsburgh's CB corps has been awful last year, ranking as the 2nd-worst in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Jets feature a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Tanner Engstrand, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to skew 6.7% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).

Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Jets to pass on 56.1% of their plays: the 9th-lowest clip among all teams this week.

The predictive model expects the Jets to run the 8th-fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.9 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.

The 5th-lowest number of plays in the league have been run by the Jets last year (a mere 55.7 per game on average).

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