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Josh Palmer

Josh Palmer Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 6

Atlanta Falcons vs Buffalo Bills

Josh Palmer Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+430/-480).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +470 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +430.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may fall-off.

The Bills O-line ranks as the 3rd-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive impact on all air attack statistics across the board.

Josh Palmer's ball-catching skills have gotten a boost this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate increasing from 61.3% to 68.0%.

Since the start of last season, the weak Falcons pass defense has been gouged for a massive 67.9% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing wideouts: the 2nd-largest rate in the league.

Opposing offenses have rushed for the 7th-fewest TDs in football (0.50 per game) versus the Atlanta Falcons defense this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 3.5-point advantage, the Bills are favored in this week's contest, indicating more of a focus on rushing than their usual game plan.

Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Bills are forecasted by the projections to run only 62.3 offensive plays in this contest: the 2nd-lowest number among all teams this week.

Opposing QBs have averaged 27.0 pass attempts per game versus the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: fewest in the league.

Josh Palmer has put up far fewer air yards this season (43.0 per game) than he did last season (64.0 per game).

Josh Palmer's 31.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive usage) has been substantially lower this year than it was last year at 40.1.

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