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Josh Palmer

Josh Palmer Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 5

Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots

Josh Palmer Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+470/-500).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -630 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -500.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Bills have run the 10th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 58.8 plays per game.

Calm weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being predicted in this game) typically mean increased passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume.

The Buffalo O-line grades out as the 4th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a positive influence on all passing game statistics across the board.

Josh Palmer's 65.2% Adjusted Catch% this season conveys a significant progression in his receiving proficiency over last season's 61.3% mark.

The Patriots pass defense has conceded the 7th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (67.9%) vs. WRs since the start of last season (67.9%).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 7.5-point advantage, the Bills are a heavy favorite in this week's game, suggesting much more of a reliance on running than their standard game plan.

The projections expect the Buffalo Bills as the 5th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 54.6% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.

The model projects the Bills to run the 4th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.3 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.

While Josh Palmer has earned 16.7% of his offense's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the model projects him to be much less involved in Buffalo's pass game near the goal line this week at 11.4%.

After accruing 64.0 air yards per game last season, Josh Palmer has significantly declined this season, now averaging 45.0 per game.

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