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Josh Palmer

Josh Palmer Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 3

Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins

Josh Palmer Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+300/-330).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -370 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -330.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

When it comes to air yards, Josh Palmer ranks in the lofty 77th percentile among wide receivers since the start of last season, totaling a remarkable 65.0 per game.

When it comes to protecting the passer (and the positive impact it has on all passing game metrics), the O-line of the Bills ranks as the 7th-best in football since the start of last season.

The Miami Dolphins pass defense has surrendered the 3rd-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (70%) vs. wide receivers since the start of last season (70.0%).

When it comes to the linebackers' role in run defense, Miami's collection of LBs has been terrific since the start of last season, grading out as the 4th-best in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 11.5-point advantage, the Bills are overwhelmingly favored this week, implying much more of a focus on running than their standard game plan.

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Bills to pass on 52.0% of their chances: the 5th-lowest clip among all teams this week.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is forecasted by our trusted projection set to have just 125.3 plays on offense run: the 3rd-fewest on the slate this week.

The Buffalo Bills have run the 9th-fewest plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging just 56.1 plays per game.

With an awful ratio of just 0.06 per game through the air (19th percentile), Josh Palmer stands among the worst receiving TD-scorers in football among WRs since the start of last season.

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