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Josh Palmer

Josh Palmer Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 19

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Buffalo Bills

 
 
 
Josh Palmer Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+570/-990).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +750 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +570.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Bills will be rolling out backup QB Josh Allen in this game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
  • Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 2nd-fewest plays run out of all the games this week at 125.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, allowing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the most passes in football (37.5 per game) this year.
  • In regards to pass-blocking (and the strong impact it has on all passing offense metrics), the offensive line of the Bills grades out as the best in the NFL this year.
  • This year, the fierce Jaguars run defense has allowed a meager 0.76 TDs on the ground per game to the opposing side: the 8th-best rate in the NFL.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The model projects the Bills to be the 4th-least pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 55.5% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
  • The leading projections forecast the Buffalo Bills to be the 6th-most run-heavy team in football near the end zone (context-neutralized) right now with a 48.5% red zone run rate.
  • After accumulating 64.0 air yards per game last year, Josh Palmer has seen a big downtick this year, now pacing 34.0 per game.
  • Josh Palmer's 26.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that quantifies high-value offensive volume) has been substantially worse this year than it was last year at 40.1.
  • With a very bad ratio of just 0.00 per game through the air (1st percentile), Josh Palmer rates as one of the bottom receiving TD-scorers in football among WRs this year.

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