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Josh Palmer

Josh Palmer Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 17

Buffalo Bills vs Philadelphia Eagles

 
 
 
Josh Palmer Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+500/-780).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -690 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -780.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • While Josh Palmer has garnered 8.9% of his offense's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the model projects him to be much more involved in Buffalo's passing offense near the end zone in this contest at 14.2%.
  • The Bills offensive line profiles as the 2nd-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong influence on all passing offense metrics across the board.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 3-point advantage, the Bills are favored in this week's game, implying more of a focus on running than their usual game plan.
  • Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Buffalo Bills to pass on 50.4% of their chances: the 2nd-lowest clip on the slate this week.
  • At the present time, the 7th-most run-focused team in the league near the goal line (48.0% adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Buffalo Bills.
  • The leading projections forecast this game to see the 2nd-smallest number of plays run on the slate this week at 125.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • After accruing 64.0 air yards per game last year, Josh Palmer has posted significant losses this year, currently pacing 38.0 per game.

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