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Josh Palmer

Josh Palmer Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 13

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Buffalo Bills

 
 
 
Josh Palmer Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+445/-700).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -630 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -700.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 40.6 pass attempts per game versus the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: most in the league.
  • When it comes to protecting the quarterback (and the positive impact it has on all passing attack statistics), the O-line of the Buffalo Bills profiles as the 2nd-best in the NFL this year.
  • Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 8th-highest level in the NFL vs. the Steelers defense this year (73.1% Adjusted Completion%).
  • This year, the imposing Pittsburgh Steelers run defense has surrendered a paltry 0.73 rushing TDs per game to opposing teams: the 7th-best rate in the league.
  • As it relates to the defensive ends' role in stopping the run, Pittsburgh's collection of DEs has been excellent this year, ranking as the 3rd-best in football.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Bills are a 3-point favorite in this game, indicating a running game script.
  • The leading projections forecast the Bills to be the 10th-most run-centric offense in the NFL near the end zone (context-neutralized) right now with a 47.0% red zone run rate.
  • Right now, the 2nd-slowest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the Buffalo Bills.
  • The weather forecast calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
  • Josh Palmer has accumulated significantly fewer air yards this season (45.0 per game) than he did last season (64.0 per game).

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