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Josh Palmer

Josh Palmer Receptions
Player Prop Week 4

Buffalo Bills vs New Orleans Saints

Josh Palmer Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-145/+110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +135 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The model projects this game to have the most plays run on the slate this week at 135.5 plays, given the traits of each team and game dynamics.

The Saints defense has been something of pass funnel since the start of last season, leading opposing QBs to attempt the 10th-most passes in the NFL (33.8 per game) since the start of last season.

Josh Palmer's 53.2% snap rate this year conveys a significant regression in his offensive utilization over last year's 65.1% rate.

As it relates to protecting the passer (and the positive impact it has on all passing game statistics), the offensive line of the Buffalo Bills ranks as the 6th-best in football since the start of last season.

The Saints cornerbacks profile as the 10th-worst group of CBs in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Bills are a huge 14.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.

Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Buffalo Bills to pass on 50.4% of their chances: the lowest rate among all teams this week.

The 8th-smallest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the Bills since the start of last season (only 56.0 per game on average).

Since the start of last season, the tough New Orleans Saints defense has allowed a measly 62.2% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing wide receivers: the 5th-lowest rate in football.

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