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Josh Palmer

Josh Palmer Receptions
Player Prop Week 19

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Buffalo Bills

 
 
 
Josh Palmer Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+155/-200).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -182 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -200.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Bills will be rolling out backup QB Josh Allen in this game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
  • Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 2nd-fewest plays run out of all the games this week at 125.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, allowing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the most passes in football (37.5 per game) this year.
  • In regards to pass-blocking (and the strong impact it has on all passing offense metrics), the offensive line of the Bills grades out as the best in the NFL this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The model projects the Bills to be the 4th-least pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 55.5% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
  • Josh Palmer has been used less as a potential target this season (55.8% Route Participation Rate in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (75.5%).
  • The Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense has given up the 5th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (61.4%) to WRs this year (61.4%).
  • The Jacksonville Jaguars linebackers project as the 2nd-best group of LBs in football this year in defending pass-catchers.

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