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Josh Palmer

Josh Palmer Receptions
Player Prop Week 12

Houston Texans vs Buffalo Bills

 
 
 
Josh Palmer Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +130 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -120.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may suffer.
  • The Bills offensive line grades out as the 2nd-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive influence on all passing game stats across the board.
  • Josh Palmer's possession skills have gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate jumping from 61.3% to 64.6%.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 6-point advantage, the Bills are favored in this game, implying more of an emphasis on running than their typical game plan.
  • Our trusted projections expect the Bills as the 9th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 55.3% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
  • At the present time, the most sluggish paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) according to the model is the Buffalo Bills.
  • Josh Palmer has gone out for fewer passes this season (51.6% Route Participation Rate in games he has played) than he did last season (75.5%).
  • The Texans pass defense has yielded the lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (56.6%) to wideouts this year (56.6%).

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