Josh Palmer Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Josh Palmer

NFL · Player Props

Josh Palmer

WR · Los Angeles Chargers

Receptions

Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 22, 2023 11:16 PM EST

Analysis

Josh Palmer Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-100/-130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ +130 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chargers are a 5.5-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
The model projects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 2nd-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 62.6% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Los Angeles Chargers are projected by the predictive model to run 66.9 offensive plays in this contest: the 2nd-most among all teams this week.
Josh Palmer's 62.2% snap rate this season conveys a an impressive regression in his offensive volume over last season's 76.8% rate.
The projections expect Josh Palmer to total 7.2 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 77th percentile among wide receivers.

Favors Under

The Chargers feature a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to lean 1.8% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
Opposing teams have averaged 33.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: 7th-fewest in the league.
Josh Palmer's receiving performance has declined this season, totaling a mere 3.0 adjusted catches vs 4.4 last season.
Josh Palmer's sure-handedness have tailed off this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate shrinking from 72.2% to 52.9%.
The Chiefs pass defense has yielded the 7th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (60.5%) to WRs this year (60.5%).

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