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Josh Palmer

Josh Palmer Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 5

Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots

Josh Palmer Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 14.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 16.5 @ -115.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Bills have run the 10th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 58.8 plays per game.

Calm weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being predicted in this game) typically mean increased passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume.

The Buffalo O-line grades out as the 4th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a positive influence on all passing game statistics across the board.

Josh Palmer's 65.2% Adjusted Catch% this season conveys a significant progression in his receiving proficiency over last season's 61.3% mark.

The Patriots pass defense has conceded the 7th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (67.9%) vs. WRs since the start of last season (67.9%).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 7.5-point advantage, the Bills are a heavy favorite in this week's game, suggesting much more of a reliance on running than their standard game plan.

The projections expect the Buffalo Bills as the 5th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 54.6% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.

The model projects the Bills to run the 4th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.3 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.

Josh Palmer has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this season (59.9% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (75.5%).

After accruing 64.0 air yards per game last season, Josh Palmer has significantly declined this season, now averaging 45.0 per game.

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