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Josh Palmer

Josh Palmer Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 19

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Buffalo Bills

 
 
 
Josh Palmer Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-111/-111).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 12.5 @ -111 before it was bet down to 11.5 @ -111.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Bills will be rolling out backup QB Josh Allen in this game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
  • Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 2nd-fewest plays run out of all the games this week at 125.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, allowing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the most passes in football (37.5 per game) this year.
  • In regards to pass-blocking (and the strong impact it has on all passing offense metrics), the offensive line of the Bills grades out as the best in the NFL this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The model projects the Bills to be the 4th-least pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 55.5% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
  • Josh Palmer has been used less as a potential target this season (55.8% Route Participation Rate in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (75.5%).
  • After accumulating 64.0 air yards per game last year, Josh Palmer has seen a big downtick this year, now pacing 34.0 per game.
  • Josh Palmer's 23.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this season indicates a significant decrease in his receiving prowess over last season's 38.0 mark.
  • Josh Palmer's 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year illustrates a noteworthy diminishment in his effectiveness in the open field over last year's 2.2% figure.

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