Josh Palmer Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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Josh Palmer

NFL · Player Props

Josh Palmer

WR · Los Angeles Chargers

Receiving Yards

Los Angeles Chargers vs Denver Broncos · Week 16, 2024

Updated Dec 20, 2024 1:11 AM EST

Analysis

Josh Palmer Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 29.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 29.5 @ -105 before it was bet down to 29.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 5th-most pass-heavy team in football (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 63.3% pass rate.
Calm weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being called for in this game) typically mean better passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher pass volume, and lower ground volume.
The Broncos defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, enticing opposing QBs to attempt the 3rd-most passes in football (38.9 per game) this year.
Josh Palmer has been a much smaller part of his team's offense this year, playing on just 68.2% of snaps compared to 79.0% last year.
This year, the shaky Broncos defense has surrendered a monstrous 161.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing wide receivers: the 8th-worst in the NFL.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Los Angeles Chargers offense to be the 9th-slowest paced team in football (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 28.81 seconds per snap.
After averaging 67.0 air yards per game last season, Josh Palmer has produced significantly fewer this season, currently averaging 61.0 per game.
Josh Palmer's 37.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this season conveys a meaningful reduction in his receiving ability over last season's 51.0 figure.
Josh Palmer's 2.28 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this season conveys a material drop-off in his efficiency in picking up extra yardage over last season's 5.3% mark.
This year, the fierce Broncos pass defense has allowed the 6th-least yards-after-the-catch in the league to opposing WRs: a mere 3.6 YAC.

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