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Josh Palmer

Josh Palmer Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 11

Los Angeles Chargers vs Cincinnati Bengals

Josh Palmer Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 28.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 34.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 28.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, and reduced run volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.

Josh Palmer's 66.9% Adjusted Catch Rate this season represents a material progression in his receiving proficiency over last season's 62.8% figure.

Josh Palmer's pass-game efficiency has been refined this season, totaling 12.31 adjusted yards-per-target vs just 8.58 figure last season.

The Bengals defense has surrendered the 8th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (157.0) to wide receivers this year.

The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has been particularly weak when opposing WRs have gotten into space, allowing an average of 4.45 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 9th-most in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Our trusted projections expect the Chargers to run the 3rd-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.6 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics.

The 7th-smallest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Los Angeles Chargers this year (a measly 55.0 per game on average).

Josh Palmer's 74.0% Route% this year marks a substantial decrease in his passing offense workload over last year's 86.3% rate.

Josh Palmer has posted quite a few less air yards this year (48.0 per game) than he did last year (67.0 per game).

In regards to pocket protection (and the importance it has on all passing game metrics), the O-line of the Los Angeles Chargers ranks as the 4th-worst in the league this year.

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