Josh Palmer Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Josh Palmer

NFL · Player Props

Josh Palmer

WR · Los Angeles Chargers

Receiving Yards

Houston Texans vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:20 PM EST

Analysis

Josh Palmer Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 49.5 (-116/-111).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 47.5 @ -112 before it was bet up to 49.5 @ -116.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers as the 8th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 62.5% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Chargers to run the 4th-most total plays on the slate this week with 67.9 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Chargers have run the 5th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a whopping 61.0 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Josh Palmer has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this season (89.7% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (39.1%).

Favors Under

The Chargers are a 5.5-point favorite in this week's contest, which points towards a rushing game script.
Opposing QBs have averaged 32.1 pass attempts per game against the Houston Texans defense since the start of last season: 7th-least in football.
Josh Palmer's ball-catching skills have tailed off this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 71.9% to 64.6%.
Josh Palmer's pass-game effectiveness has diminished this year, notching just 6.17 yards-per-target vs a 8.27 figure last year.

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