My Account Log Out
 
 
Josh Oliver

Josh Oliver Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 8

Los Angeles Chargers vs Minnesota Vikings

 
 
 
Josh Oliver Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+700/-930).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +840 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +700.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Vikings will be rolling out backup QB Carson Wentz in this week's game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
  • A passing game script is implied by the Vikings being a -3.5-point underdog in this week's game.
  • The predictive model expects the Vikings to be the 5th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 61.2% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
  • At the present time, the most pass-centric team in the league near the end zone (64.4% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Vikings.
  • The weatherman calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and lower ground volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Minnesota Vikings are expected by the model to run just 63.1 offensive plays in this game: the 7th-lowest number on the slate this week.
  • While Josh Oliver has been responsible for 10.8% of his team's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the projections expect him to be a less important option in Minnesota's pass game near the end zone in this week's game at 4.3%.
  • After accruing 13.0 air yards per game last season, Josh Oliver has been a disappointment this season, currently averaging 3.0 per game.
  • Josh Oliver's 5.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive usage) has been quite a bit lower this season than it was last season at 12.4.
  • Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 5th-lowest clip in the NFL against the Chargers defense this year (65.8% Adjusted Completion%).

  •  
     
     
     
     
    © 2022 EV Analytics   |   Data by WriteNow™