Josh Oliver Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Josh Oliver

NFL · Player Props

Josh Oliver

TE · Minnesota Vikings

Touchdowns

Cleveland Browns vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 5, 2025

Updated Oct 5, 2025 7:27 PM UTC

Analysis

Josh Oliver Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+1600/-4500).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -3200 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -4500.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Minnesota Vikings will be rolling out backup QB Carson Wentz in this week's contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The projections expect the Minnesota Vikings to be the 2nd-most pass-focused offense in the NFL near the end zone (adjusted for context) right now with a 63.6% red zone pass rate.
The Minnesota offensive line ranks as the 8th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
With an exceptional 84.4% Adjusted Completion Rate (93rd percentile) since the start of last season, Josh Oliver stands among the most sure-handed receivers in the NFL when it comes to TEs.
Josh Oliver grades out in the 81st percentile among tight ends when it comes to catching TDs this year, averaging an excellent 0.25 per game.

Favors Under

This game's spread implies a running game script for the Vikings, who are favored by 3.5 points.
The projections expect the Vikings to call the 7th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 65.3 plays, given their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
The 5th-lowest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the Vikings this year (only 52.2 per game on average).
Opposing teams have averaged 27.0 pass attempts per game against the Browns defense this year: fewest in the league.
While Josh Oliver has garnered 10.0% of his offense's red zone targets in games he has played this year, our trusted projections expect him to be a much smaller piece of Minnesota's offense near the goal line in this game at 3.3%.

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