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Josh Oliver

Josh Oliver Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 4

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Minnesota Vikings

 
 
 
Josh Oliver Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+1300/-3100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +1300 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +1300.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Vikings will be forced to utilize backup quarterback Carson Wentz in this contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
  • Our trusted projections expect the Vikings to be the 2nd-most pass-oriented team in the league near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 61.1% red zone pass rate.
  • Our trusted projections expect the Minnesota Vikings offense to be the 7th-fastest paced team in football (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 27.63 seconds per snap.
  • Josh Oliver comes in as one of the most reliable receivers in football among TEs, completing a fantastic 84.4% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, grading out in the 94th percentile.
  • With a terrific rate of 0.29 per game through the air (87th percentile), Josh Oliver ranks among the top receiving TD-scorers in football among TEs since the start of last season.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Minnesota Vikings to pass on 56.1% of their plays: the 11th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
  • The Minnesota Vikings have played in the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which should result in reduced pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced passing attack results when facing windier conditions in this game.
  • The model projects Josh Oliver to be much less involved in his offense's pass game near the end zone this week (3.7% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (9.1% in games he has played).

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