Josh Oliver Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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NFL · Player Props

Josh Oliver

TE · Minnesota Vikings

Touchdowns

Minnesota Vikings vs Detroit Lions · Week 17, 2025

Updated Dec 26, 2025 12:37 AM UTC

Analysis

Josh Oliver Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+475/-700).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +740 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +475.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game's spread suggests a throwing game script for the Vikings, who are -6-point underdogs.
Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Minnesota Vikings to pass on 63.2% of their downs: the 2nd-greatest frequency among all teams this week.
Right now, the 3rd-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL in the red zone (63.8% in a neutral context) according to our trusted projection set is the Vikings.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
While Josh Oliver has been responsible for 10.2% of his team's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the leading projections forecast him to be a more important option in Minnesota's passing attack near the end zone in this game at 18.0%.

Favors Under

Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Minnesota Vikings are anticipated by the predictive model to run just 63.2 plays on offense in this game: the 8th-fewest among all teams this week.
The smallest volume of plays in football have been called by the Minnesota Vikings this year (a lowly 51.2 per game on average).
Josh Oliver has compiled quite a few less air yards this season (3.0 per game) than he did last season (13.0 per game).
Josh Oliver's 6.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that measures high-value offensive volume) has been notably worse this year than it was last year at 12.4.
The Detroit Lions pass defense has conceded the 3rd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (67.9%) to TEs this year (67.9%).