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Josh Oliver

Josh Oliver Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 17

Minnesota Vikings vs Detroit Lions

 
 
 
Josh Oliver Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+475/-700).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +740 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +475.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • This game's spread suggests a throwing game script for the Vikings, who are -6-point underdogs.
  • Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Minnesota Vikings to pass on 63.2% of their downs: the 2nd-greatest frequency among all teams this week.
  • Right now, the 3rd-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL in the red zone (63.8% in a neutral context) according to our trusted projection set is the Vikings.
  • This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
  • While Josh Oliver has been responsible for 10.2% of his team's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the leading projections forecast him to be a more important option in Minnesota's passing attack near the end zone in this game at 18.0%.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Minnesota Vikings are anticipated by the predictive model to run just 63.2 plays on offense in this game: the 8th-fewest among all teams this week.
  • The smallest volume of plays in football have been called by the Minnesota Vikings this year (a lowly 51.2 per game on average).
  • Josh Oliver has compiled quite a few less air yards this season (3.0 per game) than he did last season (13.0 per game).
  • Josh Oliver's 6.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that measures high-value offensive volume) has been notably worse this year than it was last year at 12.4.
  • The Detroit Lions pass defense has conceded the 3rd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (67.9%) to TEs this year (67.9%).

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